USA

Macro data for the last week sketched a picture of “slower but still solid” growth colliding with expensive equity valuations. The flash S&P Global US Composite PMI for November rose to 54.8 (from 54.6), with manufacturing easing to 51.9 but services remaining strong, pointing to around 2½% annualised GDP growth and still-elevated price pressures. Labour data were mixed: initial jobless claims fell to 220k in the week ended 15 November, but continuing claims climbed toward a four-year high, and a delayed payrolls report showed September adding 119k jobs while unemployment edged up to 4.4%, consistent with a gradually softening job market rather than a collapse. Consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply, with the University of Michigan index dropping to 51.0, near historical lows, as households struggled with an “affordability crisis” and frustration over the long government shutdown, which also forced the cancellation/delay of October CPI and PCE releases. Against this backdrop, Fed messaging stayed pivotal: comments from NY Fed President John Williams about scope for a December rate cut helped spark a late-week rebound, but the main story was an AI/tech-led shake-out—with Nvidia and crypto-adjacent assets at the centre of volatility—that left the S&P 500 and Dow Jones each down about 1.9% for the week and the Nasdaq off 2.7%, even after a strong Friday rally. The result was broad, valuation-driven de-risking: mega-cap growth, semis and speculative tech underperformed, while defensives and value cushioned the blow but could not prevent negative weekly returns for all three major indices.

Europe

The macro pulse looked surprisingly resilient, but equities were weighed down by the global tech correction, Fed uncertainty and a sharp pullback in defence names. The HCOB Eurozone flash composite PMI for November printed at 52.4 (vs 52.5 in October), marking an 11th consecutive month in expansion; services accelerated to 53.1 while manufacturing slipped back into contraction at 49.7, underscoring an economy increasingly driven by domestic services rather than industry. Hard data confirmed a “Goldilocks but fragile” mix: Euro-area inflation slowed to 2.1% y/y in October, very close to the ECB target, while unemployment held at 6.3% in September, near record lows, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will keep rates on hold for an extended period. Markets, however, traded off macro and on risk sentiment. A Reuters wrap noted that the STOXX Europe 600 suffered its biggest weekly drop since July, down about 2.2% to 562.1 as investors questioned stretched tech valuations and rotated out of AI-exposed names; defence stocks also slumped on signs of diplomatic efforts toward ending the war in Ukraine. National indices followed the same pattern: the FTSE 100 fell roughly 1.7% on the week despite a small Friday bounce on Fed-cut hopes; Germany’s DAX 40 lost about 3.3%, France’s CAC 40 around 2.5%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 about 3.2%, its worst week since the Trump-tariff shock in April, as financials, cyclicals and any AI/defence-linked names bore the brunt of risk-off. Overall, European stocks priced in modest growth but higher equity risk premia, with the STOXX 600, FTSE 100, DAX 40, CAC 40 and IBEX 35 all closing the week lower.

Japan

The story was a clash between weak hard data and decent survey momentum, magnified by global tech jitters and regional geopolitical noise. Official figures showed that Q3 2025 GDP contracted 0.4% q/q (–1.8% annualised), the first decline in six quarters, as exports—especially autos—were hit by US tariffs and domestic consumption softened, pushing Japan into a technical recession after two consecutive negative quarters. At the same time, the flash Japan Composite PMI for November improved to 52.0, with manufacturing still in contraction at 48.8 but stabilising, and services holding a robust 53.1, indicating that domestic services are cushioning external weakness and hinting at a potential Q4 growth rebound. The equity reaction was harsh: the Nikkei 225 fell from about 50,768 (14 November) to 48,626 (21 November), a weekly loss of roughly 4.2%, while the broader and more value-tilted TOPIX slipped around 1.3% over the same period. Global investors used Japan as a high-beta proxy for global growth and tech risk—autos, machinery and chip-related names underperformed—and sentiment was further dampened by reports of Chinese travel warnings and rising diplomatic tensions in North Asia that hurt tourism-linked stocks. The combination of recession headlines, a still-tight labour market and speculation about how far the Bank of Japan can really normalise policy left Japanese equities particularly sensitive to any shift in global risk appetite.

China

October’s macro data set the tone for the week: the economy is growing but losing momentum, and that left local markets very exposed to the global tech sell-off. Official statistics showed industrial output up 4.9% y/y and retail sales up 2.9% y/y in October, both weaker than earlier in the year and the softest in over a year for retail, while fixed-asset investment fell 1.7% y/y, its steepest drop since the pandemic—evidence of property-sector stress and faltering private capex. At the same time, the surveyed urban unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% in October, a four-month low, and youth joblessness eased slightly, pointing to a labour market that is soft but not collapsing; Beijing responded with new pledges to “boost consumption” and better balance demand and supply, signalling reluctance to deliver another big-bang stimulus but recognising the need for more targeted support. Equity markets, however, focused on earnings and global risk: Reuters reported that Chinese stocks suffered their worst weekly loss since December, with the Shanghai Composite down 3.9% on the week to around 3,835, while the CSI 300 fell about 3.8% as AI and semiconductor names dropped more than 4%.In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index slumped about 5.1%, its steepest weekly decline since April, dragged by tech and renewed political tension between Beijing and Tokyo, leaving the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng among the world’s worst-performing major indices for the period and highlighting how fragile sentiment remains around China’s growth and policy path.