Weeky market report: December 5, 2025

Weeky market report: December 5, 2025

USA

The U.S. markets staged a strong rebound during the shortened Thanksgiving week, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ all posting gains of approximately 0.5-0.6% on Black Friday, marking five consecutive days of advances. However, November proved challenging overall, with the Nasdaq snapping a seven-month run of gains with monthly losses of nearly 2%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.6%. The week's rally was primarily driven by traders ramping up bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its December meeting, with probabilities climbing to around 83% by week's end. Economic indicators showed initial jobless claims decreased to 216,000 in the week ending November 22, while the Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.9 in November from 52.5 in October, though the Services PMI rose to 55.0 from 54.8. Corporate earnings dominated headlines as Nvidia reported record third-quarter revenue of $57.0 billion, up 22% from the previous quarter and 62% year-over-year, though the enthusiasm quickly reversed, sending AI winners deeply into the red with every Magnificent 7 member except Alphabet posting a losing week. Inflation remained at 3.0% year-over-year as of September 2025, while real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, supporting a resilient but moderating economic outlook.

Europe

European markets ended the week positively, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 closing 0.9% higher on November 25, while the FTSE 100, DAX 40, and CAC 40 all posted modest gains around 0.27-0.29% by week's end. Economic data showed a diverging picture as the Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 points in November from 50.0 in October, its lowest level since June, while the services PMI rose slightly to 53.1 points, its highest level since May 2024. Germany continued to struggle with the manufacturing PMI contracting to 48.4 points from 49.6, reaching its lowest level in six months, highlighting the industrial weakness plaguing Europe's largest economy. The European rally was closely linked to developments across the Atlantic, as major U.S. averages rebounded on Monday, driven by strength in the artificial intelligence trade and renewed hopes of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Defense stocks experienced notable declines early in the week, with the Stoxx 600 Aerospace and Defense Index down about 1.8% on November 24 as intensive diplomatic efforts on a U.S.-proposed Ukraine peace plan raised concerns about future defense spending, though these concerns moderated as negotiations revealed significant remaining obstacles to any final agreement.

Japan

Japanese equities showed resilience during the week, with the Nikkei 225 closing Friday at 50,253.91, up about 0.2% on the day and 3.4% for the week, successfully reclaiming the psychologically important 50,000 level after earlier weakness. Despite the weekly gains, the index was down just over 4% for November—its worst November since 2011, reflecting broader concerns about elevated valuations in AI-related stocks and the impact of rising bond yields. Economic data showed inflation remaining sticky, as Tokyo core consumer prices rose 2.8% year-on-year in November, unchanged from October and comfortably above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, while Japan's unemployment rate held at 2.6% in October for a third consecutive month, signaling a still-tight labor market. The week's advance was primarily powered by hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates in December and by solid local data on Tokyo inflation and housing, though investors rotated away from overheated AI and chip names toward machinery, industrial, and infrastructure-linked stocks. A major development came with Micron Technology's announcement to invest ¥1.5 trillion (US$9.6bn) in a new plant in Hiroshima to manufacture advanced high-bandwidth memory chips, underscoring Japan's critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain and providing long-term support for the market's industrial and technology sectors.

China

Chinese markets delivered mixed performance during the week, with mainland indices edging higher while Hong Kong pulled back from recent gains. The Shanghai Composite rose about 0.34% to around 3,888 on Friday November 28, while the CSI 300 gained roughly 0.3%, but the Hang Seng slipped around 0.34% to 25,858, snapping a four-session winning streak. Earlier in the week showed more positive momentum, as the Hang Seng Index rose 2% on Monday November 24, with the Hang Seng Tech Index advancing 2.8% as Chinese internet platforms led gains, with Alibaba jumping about 4.7% after its ChatGPT-style "Qwen" AI app surpassed 10 million downloads within a week of public beta. However, significant headwinds emerged from the property sector as S&P Global Ratings downgraded China Vanke's long-term issuer rating to CCC- from CCC, warning that the developer's liquidity is insufficient to meet roughly 11.4 billion yuan in bonds due between now and May 2026, reigniting concerns about the ongoing real estate crisis. Monetary policy remained on hold, as the People's Bank of China left the one-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5% for a sixth straight month on November 20, reflecting policymakers' reluctance to ease further amid financial stability concerns and a desire to support the yuan, even as economic data continued to disappoint and industrial profits showed weakness.

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